A brief comment about the author of the
previous post, Letter from Seoul. Eric and I do not see eye to eye on many
issues but we agree on one thing: Kim Jong-un will not give up his nuclear
weapons completely. Eric is not yet ready to speak publicly as he fears for the safety
of his family still in North Korea. He is learning English so I hope when time
comes he can speak directly to you in English.
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The truth is no one knows for sure why Kim Jong-un
wants nuclear weapons capable of striking Washington. The young despot with a
huge chip on his shoulder may not fully understand it himself. The reasons may
be multitudinous and they may have evolved and may be evolving still—Kim
Jong-un’s reasons may differ from his father’s and his grandfather's. This
exercise in attribution theory has been less than helpful in bridging a yawning
gap in strategies dealing with the Kim regime--maybe someday Kim Jong-un will
tell us all the real reasons at The Hague. The faultline between two opposing
views remains unchanged. One view, which largely reflects Pyongyang’s own
professed view and one that I held for almost my entire life, is that the
weapons are just for self-defense and do not pose direct threat. The wide-eyed
proponents of this view believe in the Kim dynasty’s humanity and eminent
rehabilitability and counsel diplomatic and economic engagement and at-all-cost
stability. Then there are those who argue that the weapons pose a threat and
they must be eliminated through sanctions and/or military action. Seoul fully
subscribes to the former and Washington to the latter. Seoul’s goal, even if it
means working together with Pyongyang all the while "demonstrating"
solidarity with Washington, is to bring Washington away from its position and
closer to their fantasy land. (Note: The man in charge of the upcoming Kim-Moon
summit preparation is Moon's Chief of Staff Im Jong-seok, a former head of the
main pro-North Korea student organization전대협 and the founder of the South-North Economic
and Cultural Exchange 남북경제문화교류재단, a private foundation that handles copyright
payments from South Korean media to Kim Jong-un. Yes, I couldn't make this stuff up if I tried.)
Seoul's efforts have born some fruit though the
real hard work was done in Washington thousands of miles away. Thanks largely
to Washington’s pressure campaign, Kim Jong-un, if we can believe Moon’s
emissaries, proposed a summit with Donald Trump and to the surprise of everyone
Trump accepted it on the spot. (Note: We know what Kim Jong-un allegedly told
the emissaries but we don't know what Moon's men told him.) The two-pronged
pressure campaign is a combination of economic sanctions and fear mongering
with credible military threats. Donald Trump has been wildly successful in
making Kim Jung-un uncomfortable. Trump’s success largely rests on his
unconventional approach toward North Korea. The Kim family has finally met an
adversary who is worthy of their respect. Trump has the capacity to speak their
language: the language of violence and deception. It is a language that I've
seen no other US president capable of using which, in my opinion, has been a
distinct disadvantage in dealing with North Korea. But under the pressure of North
Korea’s belligerence, Trump only dialed up the pressure. Trump is like no
westerner the Kim family has dealt with since the War. He is certainly no Jimmy
Carter.
In order to remove biting sanctions and reset the vicious
cycle that could easily doom his family business, Kim Jong-un offered something
that Trump could not refuse: a moratorium on nuclear and missile tests and, the
ultimate prize of them all, denuclearization, again if you can trust Moon. I’ve
already mentioned that Kim Jong-un would not give up his nuclear weapons. So
the fact that Trump has agreed to meet with Kim Jong-un appears to be an exercise
in futility if not an outright waste of time. Trump is either genuinely giving
diplomacy a chance OR... Today denuclearization depends much more on Trump than
Kim Jong-un. There is a good chance that Kim Jong-un will commit to complete,
verifiable, irreversible denuclearization. The problem is that no one but Kim
Jong-un and his close associates know how many nuclear weapons they possess.
Verifiable and irreversible? Yes. Complete? No. This is probably the reason why
some argue that the real purpose of Trump agreeing to the summit offer is not
to discuss denuclearization but to hasten a military conflict. North Korea
lies. We’ve been had before. They are lying. And they will continue to lie.
Lying is their weapon of choice. Deceiving outsiders, Uncle Sam in
particular, is seen as a virtue. It's a requirement.
But if for whatever reason Trump chooses to deceive
himself or decides that an incomplete deal is better than no deal and suspends
sanctions in favor of striking a “grand” bargain with Kim Jong-un in which
North Korea commits itself to full denuclearization, then Kim Jong-un succeeds
in buying time. He is buying time to continue to advance his nuclear ICBMs but,
more importantly, to bust the sanctions and to ride out the threat that is
Trump. There are those who argue that the Section 401 of the North Korean
Sanctions and Policy Enhancement Act would prevent Trump from suspending
sanctions unless North Korea made progress on certain issues. For North Korea
"making progress" on those issues is elementary school kids’ stuff.
The Section has enough room for Kim Jong-un to drive through an ICBM loaded
transporter-launcher.
The North Korean defector community is in
disagreement on many issues but there is one thing that we all agree on: the
Kim dynasty must end. The US should fully expect the negotiations to fail.
Failed negotiations and outcomes are all we've got to show so far for
repeatedly trying to engage North Korea. Human rights have never been part of
any negotiations between the US and North Korea. I think this is a big mistake.
For the Kim family, human rights are a non-starter hence one of their
consistent top demands: Non-interference in internal affairs. It may figure
prominently again this time. Human rights for the people of North Korea and the
US security are linked closely. As long as Kim Jong-un is in power,
denuclearization will not happen. Human rights must always be part of any
negotiations because when we bring basic human rights to the people of North
Korea, it will spell the end of the Kim regime. We must be relentless. We must
continue to enforce the existing sanctions and make them smarter and stronger
while forcefully speaking out about and demanding the end of the Kim regime’s
atrocious human rights violations.
